Combined application of EPANET and empirical model for possible formation of trihalomethanes in water distribution network of Chattogram city to identify potential carcinogenic health risk zone

The study identifies potential carcinogenic health risk-zone of Chattogram city for the occurrence of trihalomethanes (THMs) at its water distribution network. The EPANET-THMs simulation model along with an empirical model have been adopted in the study to predict THMs content of supply water of the distribution network of the city's Karnaphuli service area. The empirical model has estimated THMs level of supply water based on influential water quality parameters, and few of these have been used as pre-set values for subsequent EPANET simulation. The simulation (R²= 0.7) shows that THMs’ concentrations throughout the network vary from 33 to 486 μg/L. Around 60% of total junctions showed THMs concentrations above 150 μg/L, while that is above 50 μg/L for most (99%) of the junctions. Residual Free chlorine, one of the precursors for the THMs formation in distribution line, has also been simulated by EPANET considering varying applied chlorine dose at the water purification unit and wall (K_w) and bulk (K_b) decay constants. The simulated free residual chlorine peaks are found to be closer to the actual values with chlorine dose of 2 mg/L, and decay constants, K_w = 1 d⁻¹ and K_b = 1 d⁻¹. A mean lifetime total risk of cancer due to the presence of THMs has been found to be very high. Spatial distribution of carcinogenic risk shows that the central zone of the service area is the most vulnerable zone, followed by the western and northern zone. The first ever zone wise risk identification could be used as baseline data for operational and regulatory purposes and may raise awareness among the city's inhabitants. Furthermore, the application of EPANET in combination with an empirical model could be an effective tool for predicting THMs’ concentration in water distribution networks in developing countries like Bangladesh to minimize the expenses of measuring THMs.