TY - JOUR
T1 - Non-stationary evaluation of runoff peaks in response to climate variability and land use change in Ferson Creek, Illinois, USA
AU - Sadra, Nasim
AU - Nikoo, Mohammad Reza
AU - Talebbeydokhti, Nasser
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed’s sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest.
AB - In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed’s sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest.
KW - Climate variability
KW - Ferson Creek
KW - Land use change
KW - Return level plots
KW - Runoff peaks
KW - Watershed sensitivity
KW - Environmental Monitoring
KW - Climate
KW - Forests
KW - Temperature
KW - Humans
KW - Climate Change
KW - Agriculture
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159738429&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85159738429&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/348f66e1-8389-38d3-920a-db1043cb45b6/
U2 - 10.1007/s10661-023-11238-1
DO - 10.1007/s10661-023-11238-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 37169995
AN - SCOPUS:85159738429
SN - 0167-6369
VL - 195
JO - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
JF - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
IS - 6
M1 - 661
ER -