Mathematical Analysis and Parameter Estimation of a Two-Patch Zika Model

Kifah Al-Maqrashi, Fatma Al-Musalhi, Ibrahim Elmojtaba*, Nasser Al-Salti

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


In this paper, we developed a multi-patch model for the spread of Zika virus infection taking, into account direct and indirect transmissions along with vertical transmission. The model was analyzed to gain insights into the disease's spread. The model was fitted to a data set collected from two neighboring countries, Brazil and Colombia, to estimate some of its parameters and use it for calculating ℜ0 and sensitivity analysis. Our results show that ℜ0 is less than one in both countries, which indicates that the disease will die out. Also, our results show that direct transmission is the most important route for spreading the disease; hence, it has to gain more focus in any controlling strategy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)29-41
Number of pages13
JournalLetters in Biomathematics
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2023


  • multi-patch model
  • reproduction number
  • sensitivity analysis
  • Zika virus

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (miscellaneous)
  • Applied Mathematics

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