Frequency spillovers between oil shocks and stock markets of top oil-producing and -consuming economies

Motivated by large oil price swings, high economic and geopolitical uncertainties, and the financialization of oil, this paper examines the frequency spillovers and co-movements between oil shocks (risk and demand) and the stock markets of top oil-producer and consumer countries, namely, Canada, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US. The analysis uses the time-domain spillover index of [1], the frequency-domain spillover of [2]; and the wavelet coherence approach. The findings reveal that spillovers run from the U.S., Canada, and, to a lesser extent, Russia to oil shocks. On the other hand, oil shocks, Saudi Arabia, and China constitute net receivers of shocks. The intensity of spillovers is heavier in the short-term frequency than in the intermediate- and long-term. Furthermore, the direction of spillovers is more defined in the long-term. The U.S. stock market exerts a strong impact on oil risk in general, but the impact is stronger in the short-term. Conversely, an oil demand shock is susceptible to innovations from Canada and Russia that are stronger in the long-term. This means that oil risk shock stemming from innovations in financial markets is short-lived and dissipates quickly due to quick reactions from market participants. On the contrary, long-term links characterize the relationship between oil demand shock and financial markets, mirroring the macroeconomic nature of the linkages. Finally, while the 2008 crisis, EDC, oil price crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with strong spillovers in the short-term, the COVID-19 era was marked by higher spillovers in the long term. The findings provide important information for investors and policymakers in terms of diversification, risk management, and efforts to mitigate contagion.