Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial

Ibrahima Diouf, Charles B. Malpas, Sifat Sharmin, Izanne Roos, Dana Horakova, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Francesco Patti, Vahid Shaygannejad, Serkan Ozakbas, Sara Eichau, Marco Onofrj, Alessandra Lugaresi, Raed Alroughani, Alexandre Prat, Pierre Duquette, Murat Terzi, Cavit Boz, Francois Grand'Maison, Patrizia Sola, Diana FerraroPierre Grammond, Bassem Yamout, Ayse Altintas, Oliver Gerlach, Jeannette Lechner-Scott, Roberto Bergamaschi, Rana Karabudak, Gerardo Iuliano, Christopher McGuigan, Elisabetta Cartechini, Stella Hughes, Maria Jose Sa, Claudio Solaro, Ludwig Kappos, Suzanne Hodgkinson, Mark Slee, Franco Granella, Koen de Gans, Pamela A. McCombe, Radek Ampapa, Anneke van der Walt, Helmut Butzkueven, José Luis Sánchez-Menoyo, Steve Vucic, Guy Laureys, Youssef Sidhom, Riadh Gouider, Tamara Castillo-Trivino, Orla Gray, Eduardo Aguera-Morales, Abdullah Al-Asmi, Cameron Shaw, Talal M. Al-Harbi, Tunde Csepany, Angel P. Sempere, Irene Treviño Frenk, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Tomas Kalincik

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Abstract

Background Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. Methods Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. Results 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. Conclusions The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously. Data are available upon reasonable request. MSBase is a data processor, and warehouses data from individual principal investigators who agree to share their datasets on a project-by-project basis. Data access to external parties can be granted at the sole discretion of each MSBase Principal Investigator (the data controllers), who will need to be approached individually for permission.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1004-1011
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry
Volume94
Issue number12
Early online dateJul 6 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2023

Keywords

  • MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS
  • STATISTICS
  • Glatiramer Acetate/therapeutic use
  • Recurrence
  • Humans
  • Natalizumab/therapeutic use
  • Dimethyl Fumarate/therapeutic use
  • Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting/drug therapy
  • Multiple Sclerosis/drug therapy
  • Pregnancy
  • Interferon-beta/therapeutic use
  • Female
  • Fingolimod Hydrochloride/therapeutic use
  • Immunosuppressive Agents/therapeutic use

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Clinical Neurology
  • Psychiatry and Mental health

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