Do shocks have permanent or transitory effects on tourist inflow? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks: evidence reexamined for Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Saranjam Baig, Hamid Hussain*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)


Do shocks affect tourist inflows permanently or temporarily? To examine this question, we consider a region in Northern Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, known for its natural and scenic beauty and with a history of huge tourist inflows, both domestic and international. The tourist arrivals from significant source markets are investigated using univariate and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with two structural breaks to examine if shocks to the time path of visitors’ inflow are permanent or transitory. According to the results, the univariate and LM unit root test with two breaks reject the unit root null for all major source markets. The findings suggest transistory effects rather than permanent effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Gilgit-Baltistan. This result further predicts the sustainability of the tourism sector in the region in the long run.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)120-130
Number of pages11
JournalAsia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 1 2020
Externally publishedYes


  • Gilgit Baltistan
  • Tourist arrival
  • destination
  • developing economy
  • financial crises
  • seasonality
  • sectarian attacks
  • spectral density
  • time series
  • unit root

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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