Beef Supply Response Under Uncertainty: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Msafiri Mbaga, Barry T. Coyle

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


This is the first econometric study of dynamic beef supply response to incorporate risk aversion or, more specifically, price variance. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models are estimated for cow-calf and feedlot operations using aggregate data for Alberta. In all cases, output price variance has a negative impact on output supply and investment. Moreover, the impacts of expected price on supply response are greater in magnitude and significance than in risk-neutral models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)519-539
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2003
Externally publishedYes


  • Autoregressive distributed lag model
  • Beef supply response
  • Dynamics
  • Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Economics and Econometrics


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