TY - JOUR
T1 - A warm-season drought reconstruction in central-northern Pakistan inferred from tree rings since 1670 CE and its possible climatic mechanism
AU - Khan, Adam
AU - Chen, Feng
AU - Zhang, Heli
AU - Saleem, Sidra
AU - Ali, Hamada E.
AU - Yue, Weipeng
AU - Hadad, Martín
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.
PY - 2024/2/1
Y1 - 2024/2/1
N2 - Understanding past warm-season drought variability and its underlying climatic mechanisms is crucial for effective drought management and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, we develop a regional chronology (RC) spanning from 1620 to 2017 CE by utilizing dendrochronological techniques and tree-ring data from two stands of Abies pindrow. The RC reveals a significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and precipitation and a significant negative correlation with temperature. We use a simple linear regression model between RC and climate data to reconstruct a 348-year-long (1670–2017 CE) warm-season (April-July) drought variability from central-northern Pakistan. The reconstructed scPDSI reveals a 44% variance of the scPDSI during the common calibrated period 1950–2017 CE. Spatial correlation shows a positive field correlation with central-northern Pakistan, extending predominantly to neighboring regions. MTM (multi-taper method) spectral analysis reveals inter-annual cycles (6.8, 3.2, 2.7, 2.5, and 2.3 years) and multi-decadal cycles (11.7, 15.2, 16.2, 17.9, and 128 years). The internal-annual cycles demonstrate a possible linkage between reconstructed scPDSI and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reconstructed scPDSI agrees well with the moisture-sensitive tree-ring records from northern Pakistan and neighboring regions. Our reconstruction shows a significant correlation with the South Asia Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and solar activity, emphasizing that all these factors have some influence on the drought variability in central-northern Pakistan. This study has important implications for disaster management and proactive measures for mitigating the impact of drought on both natural ecosystems and human populations in central-northern Pakistan and associated regions.
AB - Understanding past warm-season drought variability and its underlying climatic mechanisms is crucial for effective drought management and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, we develop a regional chronology (RC) spanning from 1620 to 2017 CE by utilizing dendrochronological techniques and tree-ring data from two stands of Abies pindrow. The RC reveals a significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and precipitation and a significant negative correlation with temperature. We use a simple linear regression model between RC and climate data to reconstruct a 348-year-long (1670–2017 CE) warm-season (April-July) drought variability from central-northern Pakistan. The reconstructed scPDSI reveals a 44% variance of the scPDSI during the common calibrated period 1950–2017 CE. Spatial correlation shows a positive field correlation with central-northern Pakistan, extending predominantly to neighboring regions. MTM (multi-taper method) spectral analysis reveals inter-annual cycles (6.8, 3.2, 2.7, 2.5, and 2.3 years) and multi-decadal cycles (11.7, 15.2, 16.2, 17.9, and 128 years). The internal-annual cycles demonstrate a possible linkage between reconstructed scPDSI and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reconstructed scPDSI agrees well with the moisture-sensitive tree-ring records from northern Pakistan and neighboring regions. Our reconstruction shows a significant correlation with the South Asia Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and solar activity, emphasizing that all these factors have some influence on the drought variability in central-northern Pakistan. This study has important implications for disaster management and proactive measures for mitigating the impact of drought on both natural ecosystems and human populations in central-northern Pakistan and associated regions.
KW - Abies pindrow
KW - Central-northern Pakistan
KW - Climate change
KW - Dendroclimatology
KW - scPDSI
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UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/3942d4ad-c4c5-3377-b939-b39a69c81a30/
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-024-03688-4
DO - 10.1007/s10584-024-03688-4
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85185127860
SN - 0165-0009
VL - 177
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
IS - 2
M1 - 33
ER -