A Multi-Objective Risk-Based Game Theoretic Approach to Reservoir Operation Policy in Potential Future Drought Condition

Mohammad S. Khorshidi, Mohammad Reza Nikoo*, Mojtaba Sadegh, Banafsheh Nematollahi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

35 Citations (Scopus)


In this paper, by using the concept of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a Leader-Follower game (LFG) based multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine the optimum 12-month operation policy of a reservoir in potential future dry periods. The minimization of CVaRs of storage loss and agricultural and environmental deficits along with maximization of planned allocation to agricultural sector are considered as leader’s objectives, while the followers try to maximize their share of water rights using Nash bargaining (NB) method. This framework is then used to model the operation policy of Dorudzan basin in Fars province, southwestern Iran. Water demand and daily climate data in the period of 2003 to 2015 for this basin, as well as future projections from fifteen IPCC-AR4 global circulation models (GCMs) for 2018–2030 under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios are considered to evaluate future dam operation policies. Future projections are downscaled using the LARS-WG model, which then feeds the HMETS watershed model to simulate the corresponding reservoir inflow time-series. Thereafter, three-hundred 12-month rainfall, evaporation and inflow time series with least inflow volume are used as input for the optimization model, which is solved using NSGA-II and GA algorithms. The results show while the model can determine the operation policy that keeps the associated risks in the acceptable range, it can satisfy the followers demands with respect to the available resources. The results also show that the agricultural sector of the study area can be hugely affected by potential future droughts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1999-2014
Number of pages16
JournalWater Resources Management
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - Apr 15 2019


  • Conditional value at risk (CVaR)
  • Crop pattern optimization
  • Drought impact
  • Leader-follower game method
  • Reservoir operation policy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology


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