The effect of the Covid-19 on Food Security and Supply Chain in MENA Countries

The ongoing spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) across the world has affected all the countries socially, healthy, politically and economically. The numbers of infected cases and death globally were increasing so rapidly that the epicenter of the pandemic was moving so fast. When it comes to the global trade and supply chains, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic made it very difficult to supply the products from one country to another due to lockdowns across the world, and this led to a series of economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The aim of this paper is to provide analytical framework to explain the implications of the pandemic on food security and supply chain in MENA Countries. Using data published in international reports, and the data of the World Bank and FAO the paper analytically test the effect Corona pandemic on food security and supply chain in MENA countries.
Johansen Cointegration test are applied to check for Cointegration. Additionally, fully modified least square (FMOLS) is used to test the magnitude of the long relationship among variables. The variables used in this study, were collected from the World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2020) and Global Food Security Index database
The result of Johansen Cointegration test reveal that there exists a long run co-integrating relationship between the variables and food security in MENA countries. To test the magnitude of the long relationship among variables fully modified least square (FMOLS). The results show that COVID-19 has negatively affected food security in MENA countries. The effect of per capita income on the food security index is positive and statistically significant while climate change (proxied by CO2), Inflation rate and agricultural land, have, negative affect on food security in MENA countries. The main policy implications and recommendations of the study were that MENA governments policy makers should review polices related to food security issues and to be ready for any upcoming and unforeseen future crises related to supply chain and food supply disruptions.