TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting water quality variable using deep learning and weighted averaging ensemble models
AU - Zamani, Mohammad G.
AU - Nikoo, Mohammad Reza
AU - Jahanshahi, Sina
AU - Barzegar, Rahim
AU - Meydani, Amirreza
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2023/12/1
Y1 - 2023/12/1
N2 - Water quality variables, including chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), play a pivotal role in comprehending and evaluating the condition of aquatic ecosystems. Chl-a, a pigment present in diverse aquatic organisms, notably algae and cyanobacteria, serves as a valuable indicator of water quality. Thus, the objectives of this study encompass: (1) the assessment of the predictive capabilities of four deep learning (DL) models - namely, recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrence unit (GRU), and temporal convolutional network (TCN) - in forecasting Chl-a concentrations; (2) the incorporation of these DL models into ensemble models (EMs) employing genetic algorithm (GA) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to harness the strengths of each standalone model; and (3) the evaluation of the efficacy of the developed EMs. Utilizing data collected at 15-min intervals from Small Prespa Lake (SPL) in Greece, the models employed hourly Chl-a concentration lag times, extending up to 6 h, as models' inputs to forecast Chla (t+1). The proposed models underwent training on 70% of the dataset and were subsequently validated on the remaining 30%. Among the standalone DL models, the GRU model exhibited superior performance in Chl-a forecasting, surpassing the RNN, LSTM, and TCN models by 8%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. Furthermore, the integration of DL models through single-objective GA and multi-objective NSGA-II optimization algorithms yielded hybrid models adept at effectively forecasting both low and high Chl-a concentrations. The ensemble model based on NSGA-II outperformed standalone DL models as well as the GA-based model across a range of evaluation indices. For instance, considering the R-squared metric, the study's findings demonstrated that the EM-NSGA-II stands out with exceptional effectiveness compared to DL and EM-GA models, showcasing improvements of 14% (RNN), 8% (LSTM), 6% (GRU), 8% (TCN), and 3% (EM-GA) during the testing phase.
AB - Water quality variables, including chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), play a pivotal role in comprehending and evaluating the condition of aquatic ecosystems. Chl-a, a pigment present in diverse aquatic organisms, notably algae and cyanobacteria, serves as a valuable indicator of water quality. Thus, the objectives of this study encompass: (1) the assessment of the predictive capabilities of four deep learning (DL) models - namely, recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrence unit (GRU), and temporal convolutional network (TCN) - in forecasting Chl-a concentrations; (2) the incorporation of these DL models into ensemble models (EMs) employing genetic algorithm (GA) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to harness the strengths of each standalone model; and (3) the evaluation of the efficacy of the developed EMs. Utilizing data collected at 15-min intervals from Small Prespa Lake (SPL) in Greece, the models employed hourly Chl-a concentration lag times, extending up to 6 h, as models' inputs to forecast Chla (t+1). The proposed models underwent training on 70% of the dataset and were subsequently validated on the remaining 30%. Among the standalone DL models, the GRU model exhibited superior performance in Chl-a forecasting, surpassing the RNN, LSTM, and TCN models by 8%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. Furthermore, the integration of DL models through single-objective GA and multi-objective NSGA-II optimization algorithms yielded hybrid models adept at effectively forecasting both low and high Chl-a concentrations. The ensemble model based on NSGA-II outperformed standalone DL models as well as the GA-based model across a range of evaluation indices. For instance, considering the R-squared metric, the study's findings demonstrated that the EM-NSGA-II stands out with exceptional effectiveness compared to DL and EM-GA models, showcasing improvements of 14% (RNN), 8% (LSTM), 6% (GRU), 8% (TCN), and 3% (EM-GA) during the testing phase.
KW - Deep learning (DL)
KW - Ensemble model
KW - Non-dominated genetic algorithm (NSGA-II)
KW - Single- and multi-objective optimization algorithms
KW - Water quality forecasting
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U2 - 10.1007/s11356-023-30774-4
DO - 10.1007/s11356-023-30774-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 37996598
AN - SCOPUS:85181177612
SN - 0944-1344
VL - 30
SP - 124316
EP - 124340
JO - Environmental Science and Pollution Research
JF - Environmental Science and Pollution Research
IS - 59
ER -