Optimal forest management in the presence of endogenous fire risk and fuel control

This study develops a stochastic dynamic model to optimize site value from timber and non-timber benefits for a landowner in the southeast United States who integrates wildfire risk and fuel accumulation into forest management and fire prevention decisions. The derived model determines optimal fuel treatment frequencies, timing, and level simultaneously and as a function of fire risk and fuel biomass dynamics under a range of economic and biophysical conditions. The landowner’s optimal prevention decisions are highly dependent on the type of fuel biomass growth and the association between fire arrival rate and fuel accumulation, which can vary across a broad forest landscape. Results indicate that policymakers should develop their management strategies based on their long-run objectives and fuel accumulation patterns, and these strategies should vary in timing and effort level within each rotation.